Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Buffalo Bills host New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, 2026, starting at 17:00 UTC. Here is how the two teams stack up — the head-to-head history, current form and the latest bookmaker odds — ahead of the BetEX AI verdict on this game.
Head-to-head record
These two sides have met 10 times in our head-to-head records, with 7 wins for Buffalo Bills against 3 for New England Patriots. That gives Buffalo Bills the historical edge in this matchup. Meetings between the two average 44.8 points per game. Their most recent meetings on record: New England Patriots 23-16 Buffalo Bills (2025-01-05); Buffalo Bills 24-21 New England Patriots (2024-12-22); Buffalo Bills 27-21 New England Patriots (2023-12-31).
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | New England Patriots | 23-16 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2024-12-22 | Buffalo Bills | 24-21 | New England Patriots |
| 2023-12-31 | Buffalo Bills | 27-21 | New England Patriots |
| 2023-10-22 | New England Patriots | 29-25 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2023-01-08 | Buffalo Bills | 35-23 | New England Patriots |
Recent form
Buffalo Bills come into this one having won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L). Over that run they have scored 170 points and conceded 144. That works out to a 60% form rating over the period.
New England Patriots come into this one having won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L). Over that run they have scored 92 points and conceded 135. That works out to a 80% form rating over the period.
🤖 The BetEX AI verdict on Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Members see what our model ensemble makes of this game:
- AI pick & win probabilities for every outcome
- Model confidence score
- Key factors behind the call
- Value-bet detection against the market odds
How BetEX AI analyses this fixture
BetEX AI runs every fixture on this page through an ensemble of statistical models — Elo-style team ratings, scoring-rate (lambda) models and head-to-head history — refreshed daily from live competition data. The ensemble produces a win probability for each outcome, a confidence score, and flags games where the model's probability disagrees with the bookmaker line by enough to matter. Those outputs are reserved for members; everything above comes from the same underlying match data.
Predictions and statistics are for informational purposes only and are no guarantee of results. Please bet responsibly — never wager more than you can afford to lose. 18+ only.